Analysis and Forecast of the Retail Sale

1. Executive Summary This report opines that the retail gross revenue of a bulky department insert will continue to grow in the next 12 months and hit a record $ 14.3 jillion dollar by the bar of 2007. The forecast is that retail bargains are expected to be up 10 per cent growth over 2006, which will be driven by a positive economic environment. The degeneration technique is maiden applied on the historical retail sale selective information of the time by establishing the exponential tr remnant model to count on and interpret an exponential trend for the years 1947 finished 2006. indeed Holts additive exponential smoothing is used to forecast the sale for the end of the year 2007. 2. Problem Statement The data contains quarterly sales (in millions of dollars) for a large department store from the first quarter of 1947 through the fourth quarter of 2006. If the retail sales of this department store are growing exponentially through this entire time period? What should the retail sales of this department store be intercommunicate for the end of the 2007 according to its historical sale record? The intent of this data analysis is to estimate and interpret the companys exponential growth and to see whether it has been maintained during the entire period from 1947 until the end of 2006.

Based on such a trend, the retail sale for the next year is to be forecasted by Holts linear exponential smoothing. 3. Problem Analysis & Conclusions Forecasting Methods Many time serial follow a long-term trend except for stochastic variation. This trend can be upward of downward. A innocent way to model the trend is to estimate a regression equation for the sale, using time t as the case-by-case explanatory variable. In this analysis, an exponential model used to forecast the sale trend from the history sale data and Holts linear exponential smoothing is used to forecast the next four quarters sales. Regression Analysis An exponential trend is appropriate since the time series changes by a constant percentage... If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: Orderessay

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